Blog post published by presidential-power.com
Presidential elections were held in Romania on 2 November. 14 candidates took part in the race to succeed President Băsescu, who will step down on 21 December after serving his two-term limit. Among them were the incumbent prime minister (Victor Ponta), the Senate speaker and former prime minister (Călin Popescu-Tăriceanu), the ethnic German mayor of Sibiu (Klaus Iohannis), an MEP and former justice minister (Monica Macovei), a former minister of tourism and regional development (Elena Udrea), and the head of the Romanian Intelligence Agency who resigned in order to contest the election (Teodor Meleşcanu).
As none of the candidates passed the 50% threshold, a run-off will be organized on 16 November between Victor Ponta, the social-democratic prime minister, and Klaus Iohannis of the centre-right alliance between the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Democratic Liberal Party (PDL). The Central Electoral Bureau has announced a turnout of 53,16%, slightly lower than in 2009, and the following results:
- Victor Ponta, (PSD-UNPR-PC Alliance) – 40,33%
- Klaus Iohannis (PNL-PDL Christian-Liberal Alliance) – 30,44%
- Călin Popescu-Tăriceanu (Independent/Liberal Reformist Party) – 5,4%
- Elena Udrea (People’s Movement Party, PMP) – 5,18%
- Monica Macovei (Independent) – 4,46%
- Dan Diaconescu (People’s Party Dan Diaconescu, PP-DD) – 3,99%
- Kelemen Hunor (Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania, UDMR) – 3,5%
- Corneliu Vadim Tudor (Greater Romania Party, PRM) – 3,66%
- Teodor Meleşcanu (Independent) –1,1%
- Szilagyi Zsolt (Hungarian People’s Party of Transylvania, PPMT) – 0,56%
- Gheorghe Funar (Independent) – 0,48%
- William Brînză (Ecologist Party of Romania, PER) – 0,45%
- Constantin Rotaru (Socialist Alliance Party, PAS) – 0,3%
- Mirel Mircea Amariţei (Prodemo) – 0,08%
As usual in Romania, the presidential race has left its mark on the party system. While the social-democrats ran alone on the centre-left, the opposition centre-right was represented by four candidates in the contest. Centre-right parties underwent some important changes in the pre-electoral period and their transformation may continue even further after the presidential run-off.
The governing coalition between the social-democrats (PNL) and the national liberals (PNL) broke down in February 2014, as the social-democrats refused to accept the PNL leader as a joint candidate in the presidential race. Following their disappointing results in the European Parliament election, the PNL and the PDL decided to support a common candidate in the presidential contest, running under the Christian-Liberal Alliance (ACL).
The PNL-PDL merger and the nomination of Klaus Iohannis as a joint candidate in the presidential election led to split-ups in both parties. Călin Popescu-Tăriceanu, a former PNL leader and prime minister under President Băsescu between 2004 and 2008, quit the PNL and formed the Liberal Reformist Party as a springboard for his own presidential candidacy. His defection was encouraged by PM Ponta, who also tipped him as a potential successor to the prime minister position.
Monica Macovei, an MEP and former minister of justice well known for successful anti-corruption reforms, resigned from the PDL and entered the presidential race as an independent candidate. Her electoral campaign targeted rampant corruption in the state administration and she is well positioned now to form an anti-system party.
President Băsescu also followed up on his promise to found a new political party after he broke with the PDL in March 2013. He supported Elena Udrea, the former minister of tourism and regional development in the PDL government (2008-2012), in setting up the centre-right Popular Movement Party (PMP). The newly established party won 6% in the European Parliament election and ended up nominating Udrea as a presidential candidate. Băsescu threw his support behind Udrea and announced that he will join the PMP at the end of his term. However, the low score obtained by Udrea, which is less than what PMP got in the European Parliament election, might alter these plans.
The results of the first presidential round confirmed the pre-election opinion polls, which constantly put the incumbent prime minister in a comfortable lead. Victor Ponta qualified in the presidential run-off with a ten-point lead over the centre-right candidate. This is the largest difference between the top-two presidential candidates registered since 1992 (see table below). The only other instance when a candidate was able to recover a similarly sizeable gap was in 2004, when Traian Băsescu of the PNL-PD alliance narrowly defeated PM Adrian Năstase of the PSD in the run-off despite the latter’s seven-point lead in the first round. The two races are indeed similar as far as the political alliances involved in the run-off are concerned. Both centre-right candidates also ran as mayors of major cities. Whether or not the centre-right will be able to mobilize the electorate again and bring more undecided voters to the polling booths remains to be seen.
Table 1. Presidential elections results in Romania (1992-2014)
Another peculiarity of the latest presidential race is the absence of a strong candidate on the third position. For the first time in the post-communist period, the third-placed candidate obtained a score below 10%. Thus, a lot will depend on the extent to which the two top contenders will be over to win over the electorate of several centre-right candidates.
Victor Ponta might gain a substantial share of the electorate supporting Călin Popescu-Tăriceanu, whom he already indicated as a likely successor for the prime minister position. On the other hand, Klaus Iohannis, who obtained more votes than PNL and PDL did separately in the European Parliament election, should benefit from the support gained by the other two centre-right candidates, Elena Udrea and Monica Macovei.
Unanticipated events could still change the course of the electoral campaign in the next two weeks. Several corruption scandals involving former ministers and senior PSD members broke out during the electoral campaign. For example, the Microsoftgate scandal exposed nine ministers for taking bribes in the acquisition of IT licenses between 2002 and 2005. However, none of these scandals seems to have dented the prime minister’s popularity. Nor did President Băsescu’s accusation that Victor Ponta served as an undercover intelligence office between 1997 and 2001. Nevertheless, more high-level corruption scandals could be disclosed in the next two weeks.
Romanians living abroad might also influence the final results. The poor organization of the voting process in polling stations across Europe has sparked a number of protests that could lead to the mobilization of Romanians abroad in even greater numbers for the run-off. Time will show if their votes will end up tipping the scales again on 16 November, as they did in 2009.
